Counter Terrorism Financing and Food Security
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33003/fujafr-2026.v4i2.362.381-397Keywords:
Agricultural Productivity, ARDL, Counter-Terrorism Financing, Food Security, Nigeria, Security-Development NexusAbstract
Purpose: The paper empirically investigated the impact of counter-terrorism financing on food security in Nigeria, spanning the period from 2004 to 2024. Amidst escalating unconventional security threats and their attendant disruptions to the agrarian economy, the research adopts a multidimensional approach to food security by disaggregating food security into three primary components: crop production (CROP), grain production (GRAINS), and livestock (LIVE).
Methodology: Utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach and Error Correction Model (ECM), the study examined both the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships between counter-terrorism financing proxy by government on expenditure on military, police, custom and immigration on food security with population growth as control variable.
Results and conclusion: The empirical results revealed a robust long-run cointegrating relationship across all three models, confirmed by significant negative Error Correction Terms. A critical finding is the "security-productivity paradox," where high-intensity military spending (LOGMIL) was found to exert a negative long-run pressure on grain production, likely due to the "crowding-out" effect on agricultural investment. Conversely, the results demonstrated that institutional security measures, particularly police and customs expenditures, yield a significant "peace dividend" in the long run, facilitating the expansion of the livestock and crop sectors. Short-run dynamics, however, were characterized by volatility, as immediate shifts in security enforcement (D(LOGPOL)) and trade regulations (D(LOGCUS)) initially disrupted production cycles. Overall, the study concluded that food security in Nigeria is inextricably linked to the efficiency of the domestic security architecture. While defense spending is necessary for immediate threat containment, long-term agricultural resilience depends on strengthening internal policing and trade facilitation.
Implication of Findings: Consequently, the research recommends a strategic shift in fiscal priority toward institutional security, the establishment of sector-specific "Agro-Ranger" units to protect farming communities, and the reinvestment of security savings into rural infrastructure.
References
Adebisi, S. A., Azeez, O. O., & Oyedeji, R. (2016). Appraising the effect of Boko Haram insurgency on the agricultural sector of the Nigerian business environment. Journal of Law and Governance, 11(1), 1–12. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15209/jbsge.v11i1.999
Adelaja, A., & George, J. (2019). Effects of conflict on agriculture: Evidence from the Boko Haram insurgency. World Development, 117, 184–195. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.01.010
Agbede, A., & Osumah, O. (2012). The Political Economy of Insurgent Finance in Nigeria. Journal of Modern African Studies, 50(4), 585–607.
Agbiboa, D. A. (2015). The political economy of Boko Haram's terrorism in Nigeria. African Security Review, 24(1), 1–17. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-21230-2_1
Agbiboa, D. A. (2022). Terrorism and the everyday political economy in Nigeria. Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 40(1), 1–21.
Blomberg, S. B., Hess, G. D., & Orphanides, A. (2004). The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism. Journal of Monetary Economics, 51(5), 1007–1032. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.04.001
BudgIT. (2023). 2024 proposed budget framework [Infographic and analysis]. BudgIT Nigeria. https://budgit.org/post_infographics/2024-proposed-budget-framework
Cadre Harmonisé. (2024). Results of food and nutrition insecurity (FNI) analysis for current period (October to December 2024) and projected period (June to August 2025). Government of Nigeria, FAO, & WFP.
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). (2024). Anti-Money Laundering and Counterterrorism Financing Compliance Review. CBN.
Chuku, C., Abang, D., & Isip, I. (2017). Growth and fiscal consequences of terrorism in Nigeria (Working Paper No. 284). African Development Bank. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2017.1389583
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). (2024). 33.1 million Nigerians projected to be food insecure in 2025 [News release]. https://www.fao.org/nigeria/news/detail-events/en/c/1720792
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2023). FAOSTAT database. http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/
Gaibulloev, K., & Sandler, T. (2011). The adverse effect of transnational and domestic terrorism on growth in Africa. Journal of Peace Research, 48(3), 355–371. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343310395798
Garba, I. (2020). The political economy of illicit mining in Nigeria. Journal of the Nigerian Mining and Geosciences Society, 22(1), 1–15.
GIABA. (2021). Typologies of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing in West Africa. Inter-Governmental Action Group against Money Laundering in West Africa.
Martin-Shields, C. P., & Stojetz, W. (2019). Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policy making. World Development, 119, 150–164. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.07.011
Moghalu, K. C. (2018). Build, Innovate and Grow: My Vision for Our Country. Bookcraft.
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). (2023). Agricultural performance surveys [Annual/quarterly reports]. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/
Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU). (2022). National inherent risk assessment of terrorist financing in Nigeria 2022. https://www.nfiu.gov.ng/
Olonisakin, F. (2021). Diaspora remittances, crowdfunding, and the vulnerabilities of digital finance. Journal of African Security, 13(3), 1–18.
Onuoha, F. C. (2022). Kidnapping for Ransom in Nigeria: A New Frontier of Terrorist Finance. Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 40(3), 321–340.
Papale, S. (2025). Food, terrorism, and the Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab insurgencies. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism. Advance online publication. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2025.2457427
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). (2024). SIPRI military expenditure database. https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex
Usman, G., Umar Isah, Y., & Muhammad, U. F. (2024). Asymmetric impact of insecurity on agricultural productivity in Nigeria (MPRA Paper No. 123113). Munich Personal RePEc Archive.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Omini Nta Ofem, Sunday A Effiong, Hilary Nkad Kubua
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
The FUDMA Journal of Accounting and Finance Research (FUJAFR) operates a copyright policy that ensures a balance between author rights and wide dissemination of scholarly work.
1. Author Copyright Retention
Authors retain full copyright of their published work without restriction. Submission to FUJAFR does not transfer ownership of copyright to the journal.
2. License to Publish
By submitting a manuscript and upon acceptance, authors grant FUJAFR:
- The right to publish, reproduce, and distribute the article
- The right to identify itself as the original publisher of the work
This grant is non-exclusive, meaning authors are free to reuse their work in other contexts, provided proper acknowledgment of the original publication in FUJAFR is made.
3. Licensing of Published Content
All articles are published under the:
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License (CC BY-NC 4.0)
Under this license:
- Users may share and adapt the work for non-commercial purposes only
- Proper attribution to the author(s) and the journal is required
- Any commercial use requires explicit permission from the copyright holder
4. Author Reuse Rights
Authors are permitted to:
- Archive their published articles in institutional repositories or personal websites
- Share their work for educational and research purposes
- Reuse portions of their work in future publications (e.g., books or other articles), provided proper citation of the original publication is included
5. Third-Party Content
Authors are responsible for obtaining permission to use any third-party copyrighted material (e.g., images, tables, datasets) included in their manuscripts. Proper acknowledgment must be provided where required.
6. Attribution Requirement
All users of FUJAFR content must provide appropriate credit, including:
- Author name(s)
- Article title
- Journal name (FUJAFR)
- Year of publication
